The Best Investment Possible Right Now.

Bangalore
23/10/08.
I feel the best investment right now is in gold.It is costing today about 700 $ / ounce. Get in right now and ride the rise upto a minimum of 30% and then reanalyse the situation at that point.
Analysis: After 9/11, the then Federal Chief, Mr. Alan
Greenspan, started reducing interest rates drastically to overcome sluggish economic growth in the U.S. after the Dotcom bubble burst in 2000.
This created two things:
1) A housing bubble in the U.S. due to availabilty
of cheap interest rates,
2) Investments into emerging markets and in particular the BRIC countries.
The housing bubble started to burst from around 2006, and this led to the Sub-prime crisis which kind of surfaced arround Aug 2007 for the first time.
The sub-prime crisis then led to a " CREDIT CRISIS" the likes of which the world has never seen since the days of the great depression of 1929.
During the period of 2006 to the first quarter of 2008,the dollar lost its value as bad economic news such as wide spread unemployment and housing slowdown was crippling the U. S economy.The loss in the value of the dollar spurred a rally in all commodities , moreso - Oil and in Gold.
However as the credit crisis started claiming its victims such as Lehman Brothers, AIG, etc, money became very scarce and investors in the west started to withdraw money from the emerging markets and started to take it back to the U.S.
The flight of dollars back to U.S. has made it appreciate against all other currencies. This in turn has led to a sell-off in commodities leading to its burst.This is the story up until now.
The dollar is however, intrinsically a weak currency as it is supported by a weak U.S. economy.
Once all the money that needs to go back to the U.S, does go back to the U.S.,any further appreciation in the greenback will stop. This may take a few months . Thereafter, as the dollar starts to depreciate, commodities should once again rally. However, industrial commodities such as iron-ore, base metals such as copper, alluminium etc, and oil will be soft due to slow global growth and subsequent weak demand.This leaves only GOLD to go up , as this will be considered as the only safe heaven.
So the best way to fight the global downturn is to invest in GOLD for the time being.